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来发展的信心。　　供需缺口持续扩大不可逆转，电解铝从再分配走向再扩张　　电解铝供给国内产能几近天花板，海外产能则“投建成本高、建设周期长”，电解铝环节“类资源”属性日益凸显，供应增速仅为1%附近。而需求端，同样受益于泛新能源、电网建设以及包装消费的合力拉动将有效拉动电解铝需求达到2-3%。供不应求趋势不可逆，电解铝环节盈利增厚将从再分配走向再扩张。　　风险提示：商品价格波动、项目建设不及预期、研究

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